Comet Holmes - Would 'They' tell us if it was going to hit? - Poll

News Type: Event — Mon Oct 29, 2007 6:47 AM EDT

science, poll, earth, collision, siberia, tunguska, holmes-comet, comet-strike

Eddie French

Live Poll

If Comet Holmes was on a Collision course with The Earth, would we informed of the coming disaster?

Yes
15%
No
66%
Don't Know
10%
Don't give a F%&*!
9%
What's a comet?
0%

Total Votes: 121

Comet Holmes

I was always told to be wary of any comet that doesn't show a tail. That's because the tail is streaming out directly behind it, opposite to its direction of travel, so you just can't see it.
Of course, that may not be the only reason for the absence of an observable tail.
Comet Holmes orbits the Sun once every 7 years at a distance of about 200 million miles (compared to Earth's 93-million-mile orbit). As a result, it was re-observed in 1899 and 1906 before being lost for nearly six decades. Based on a prediction by Brian Marsden, of the Minor Planet Centre, the comet was recovered in 1964.
It just so happens that there was a large impact near Tunguska, in Northern Siberia, around the time of the second observation in the early 20th Century, which coincided with a similar outburst from this very comet.
Given that the resources required for tracking and compiling trajectories for these objects are mostly in the hands organisations and/or institutions which are capable of withholding calamitous information from the general public, the question must be asked:-

Would 'They' tell us if it was going to hit?

20 Votes
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{"commentId":1138225,"authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

Eddie French

I'm not sure that we would be given the information. Past crisis have shown that many will take advantage of the chaos and just make this a lot worse for the ones who have the job of picking up the pieces

{"commentId":1138225,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

3 votes

#1 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 6:54 AM EDT

{"commentId":1138879,"authorDomain":"collin"}

Collin

You pose a good question although a comets tail will almost always be pointing away from the sun. You need to remember that there is no air or wind in space. A comets flying at any speed is not going to be met with resistance in the same way a party streamer would in our atmosphere.

The tail is ionized gas and dust eminating from the coma, which is the layer of gas surrounding the comet. With no atmosphere the force behind the tail is actually the Sun itself. I am not sure quite how this works but it has to do with a magnetic field produced by the sun. The end result is that the tail always points away from the sun.

If the tail is not visible then this could be because of position of the earth between the sun and comet. I wonder if we are close enough to the sun that we would not see the tail if a comet was coming directly at us. Not sure about that.

Back to the question. If we had a collision in our future, which mathematically speaking we certainly do, then it would stand to reason that attempts would be made to contain that information. I once thought about starting a service that plots the course of NEOs (Near Earth Objects) and creates an alert system much like a ticker sitting on your desktop which alerts of new objects put into the database and tracks their course. The idea would be a network of astronomy professionals and enthusiasts maintaining a massive directory. To add more value it would have factoids and suggestions on what the backyard astronomer might look at. Things of that nature but it could tap into the existing network of people who are already hunting for the next dinosaur killer.

That's a fun idea. I don't think that a NEO could be covered up though. There are too many eyes in the sky and people who share that information. It's not like large telescopes are all controlled by the government even if some are. I guess the best answer to the question of would we be kept in the dark is, lets hope we never find out.

{"commentId":1138879,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"collin"}

3 votes

#1.1 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 12:03 PM EDT

{"commentId":1139019,"authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

Eddie French

If the tail is not visible then this could be because of position of the earth between the sun and comet. I wonder if we are close enough to the sun that we would not see the tail if a comet was coming directly at us. Not sure about that.

I posited this in response to a reply to a comment I made on a similar post which outlined the physics you stated above, (which I am fully aware of). I am sure that, given the right conditions and proximity, the absence of an observable tail would indicate a close intersection of orbits.

{"commentId":1139019,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

1 vote

#1.2 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 12:49 PM EDT

{"commentId":1138383,"authorDomain":"thelimeybrit"}

theLimeyBrit

"They" may or may not warn of an impending strike- which way you lean depends on how paranoid you are. But there are enough knowledgeable amateur astronomers out there that someone would figure it out independently. Word would get out - perhaps not in time to do anything about it, but then again, what *would* you do in the face of an incoming comet? If you're on the continent that gets hit, you're pretty much going to die.

{"commentId":1138383,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"thelimeybrit"}

6 votes

#2 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:45 AM EDT

{"commentId":1138455,"authorDomain":"hircus"}

hircus

Well, if a splinter of this comet is indeed responsible for Tunguska, and if a similarly-sized splinter will impact this time, and if we can predict the exact location, evacuating a Tunguska-sized area is quite plausible.

{"commentId":1138455,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"hircus"}

2 votes

#2.1 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:16 AM EDT

{"commentId":1138616,"authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

Eddie French

There's a few if's and and's in your comment but if it was, and if we can, then we should.
Well done on the splinter implication. I was expecting "If that was the comet then it wouldn't be here now".

{"commentId":1138616,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

2 votes

#2.2 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 10:19 AM EDT

{"commentId":1138768,"authorDomain":"laughman"}

Laughman

Would 'They' tell us if it was going to hit?

'They' would if they could blame it on Hillary.

{"commentId":1138768,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"laughman"}

2 votes

#3 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:12 AM EDT

{"commentId":1138779,"authorDomain":"fdbryant3"}

FDBryant3

Would you want to know?

{"commentId":1138779,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"fdbryant3"}

3 votes

#4 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:19 AM EDT

{"commentId":1139286,"authorDomain":"suburbanoutcast"}

Botunda

Hell yeah I would want to know!!! I need to get in the last good sex/beer/blunt/InsertYourViceHere!!!

How dare you deny me that! *slapswithglove*

{"commentId":1139286,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"suburbanoutcast"}

1 vote

#4.1 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 2:10 PM EDT

{"commentId":1138793,"authorDomain":"vacelts"}

vacelts

Don't you watch the movies? They'd only tell us after Bruce Willis and his merry band of misfits fail to drill through the comet (can you drill through comets like asteroids or are they too hot?) :-P

{"commentId":1138793,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"vacelts"}

4 votes

#5 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:24 AM EDT

{"commentId":1139027,"authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

Eddie French

Right!
I'm with it now......BRUCE!!!

{"commentId":1139027,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

2 votes

#5.1 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 12:51 PM EDT

{"commentId":1140811,"authorDomain":"thura"}

Thura

'They,' may or may not, but in this age of communication due to the Internets, I doubt that it can be hidden for too long. Also there are more than a few astronomy buffs spread out over the world. Such an event cannot be hidden.

{"commentId":1140811,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"thura"}

2 votes

#6 - Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:44 PM EDT

{"commentId":1142193,"authorDomain":"ricemunk"}

RiceMunk

Apparently there's been a potential detection of a tail on Holmes. I seeded the thing here but I think it's not showing up in a lot of places yet due to me being a "new" member on Newsvine from the virtue of just liking to lurk a lot.
Um, anyhow, I think the link should appear in my column-thingy or something if you click on my name and such. It's the only bit of news I've seeded so far so picking the right seed shouldn't be hard. :-p

On the matter of whether "They" would tell us if there's a big ol' comet heading at us, I don't think "They" have much control over that.
You don't actually need a huge institution or multi-million dollar observing equipment for figuring out the trajectory of Holmes yourself if you want to. Just get yourself a good amateur telescope, make a couple(I think the minimum needed for a pretty okay approximation was 3) of location measurements from Holmes and then go find out the trajectory calculation maths from your favorite basic celestial mechanics book. It's not rocket science, it's Newtonian mechanics... or Hamiltonian mechanics if you're a crazy theoretical physics guy.
I hear the crazy theoretical physics guys claim it's easier with Hamiltonian mechanics... provided you understand what the heck that stuff is all about.

But if you don't want to do that, there's at least some sort of a trajectory put on the wikipedia page on Holmes(look for 17P/Holmes) that's been nicked off Nasa's JPL site(has very nice catalogues for these sort of things) that plops Holmes' closest distance even from Earth's orbit at around the same numbers as how far Earth is from the Sun. Chances are pretty slim for Holmes to ever come anywhere near Earth on distances like that.

Then again, the trajectory calculations from that come from Nasa which could be controlled by *Them*!
And alas, I can not disprove the existence of Them.
But rest assured that the Flying Spaghetti Monster will protect us from mr. Holmes should he decide to pay us a visit.

{"commentId":1142193,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"ricemunk"}

1 vote

#7 - Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:04 PM EDT

{"commentId":1142251,"authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

Eddie French

Now I feel great.
Spaghetti Monster....Yess!
"DORIS, unpack the car, we're stayin' put."

That's the thing about 'Them' isn't it, you just never know who they are.
(It's not paranoia if they're all after you)

{"commentId":1142251,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"eddiefrench"}

1 vote

#7.1 - Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:24 PM EDT

{"commentId":1166226,"authorDomain":"harold-williams"}

Dr. Harold Williaams

Yes they would tell you so you could duck. If it is only 3-4Km across and it hit us, it would not be good, but some of us would probably survive. The thing that took out the dinosaurs around 65 million years was larger than this.

{"commentId":1166226,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"harold-williams"}

1 vote

#8 - Wed Nov 7, 2007 6:07 PM EST

{"commentId":1166234,"authorDomain":"harold-williams"}

Dr. Harold Williaams

es they would tell you so you could duck. If it is only 3-4Km across and it hit us, it would not be good, but some of us would probably survive. The thing that took out the dinosaurs around 65 million years was larger than this.

{"commentId":1166234,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"harold-williams"}

1 vote

#9 - Wed Nov 7, 2007 6:08 PM EST

{"commentId":1193149,"authorDomain":"fredrgates"}

The Scio Sage

We (mankind) aren't dinosaurs. It is quite possible that not one of the dinosaurs had a clue that anything was amiss before the collision. If there was a collision. But, of course, we don't know but what there was a civilization even more, or possibly much more advanced than ours. Because we weren't there. Maybe the smart ones all split before it happened. Wouldn't that be cool? Anyway, forewarned is forearmed. You are almost always better off if you have some idea of what is going to happen. If you do something about it.

{"commentId":1193149,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"fredrgates"}

#10 - Sat Nov 17, 2007 1:18 AM EST

{"commentId":1218997,"authorDomain":"jonaz108"}

Jonaz108

Hi everyone!

The tail o a comet has nothing to do with its direction.
The tail's orientation is related to the alignment with the Sun.
The solar winds cause the tail to expand in the opposite direction.

Thanks!

{"commentId":1218997,"threadId":"168525","contentId":"1057407","authorDomain":"jonaz108"}

#11 - Tue Nov 27, 2007 7:42 AM EST

{"canLink":false,"threadId":"168525","isPrivate":false}

Comet Unexpectedly Becomes A Million Times Brighter; May Soon Appear Larger Than the Moon	Space.com	Sun Oct 28	41
Mystery Comet Explodes Into Brightness	Spaceref	Fri Oct 26	5
Skywatchers marvel at surprise comet	msnbc.com	Tue Oct 30	1
Comet Holmes on its way to brightest in history	Australian News Network	Fri Oct 26	0

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Comet Holmes - Would 'They' tell us if it was going to hit? - Poll

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